Ethereum Classic (ETC) bears were late to react to news of ETC Dev shutdown but once they spotted some weakness, they upped their short positions aggressively. In fact, the weekly chart for ETCUSDShorts shows that the number of shorts for Ethereum Classic (ETC) has now reached a new all time high of Bitfinex. For Ethereum Classic (ETC) bulls, this is a favorable development as it will ultimately bring about the trend reversal that most investors have been waiting for. The bears have no doubt overreacted to the whole situation surrounding the ETC Dev shutdown. It is not even clear yet if that shutdown is temporary, but even if it is; one needs to understand fully what it means.
In this market, the bears are seen as smart and hungry opportunists much like the whales. Now, that is all good as long as they know what they are doing. The bears that have been shorting Ethereum Classic (ETC) since its all time high would have certainly made a killing by now. However, things get messy when these bears start to feel invincible or worse, mistake themselves for being whales. Looking at the above chart, I have no other way to explain this. It sums up the overconfidence of the bears who have not only misunderstood the entire ETC Dev situation but they have put money on it. The situation right now is that the retail bears are incredibly confident and the retail bulls are too scared and confused.
Now, a lot of bulls are telling others that the ETC Dev shutdown is not such a bad thing after all but deep down they have their doubts. It is natural to be concerned but this is not the time to give in to emotions. If you have been through this entire period of bear market to see Ethereum Classic (ETC) fall from its ATH to today’s yearly low, it makes no sense to give up now. If anything, this is the time to be greedy. If you look at the ETC Dev shutdown without considering other related developments, it looks very bad. Igor Artamonov and his team did a lot of work on Ethereum Classic (ETC) and now that they have stopped you are right to think that the future of ETC/USD is uncertain. However, if you look at this from another angle, taking into account relevant developments, things look completely different.
Fundamental and technical analyses are very important, yes, but those work best in mature, more developed markets. In emerging markets like these, you have to take into account the intent and thinking behind every move. You have to see why something happened and what is it going to lead to. I already mentioned in my previous analyses that ETC Dev shutdown was not about money; it was about a regime change. If you start digging up on why a coup was staged against ETC Dev and who were the people behind the coup and what are their objectives, I think you will get very close to finding out whether Ethereum Classic (ETC) has a future or not.